I tell every campaign team the same thing after every election: “Now comes the detailed analysis.” Winners announce it at the very press conference where they declare victory, to show they are serious people. Losers announce the same thing, to show they have drawn the lessons from defeat and that there is a plan for next time. It sounds logical, like standard procedure, something that goes without saying — like the campaign silence period or a properly completed polling board record. Yes, I tell everyone. And almost nobody actually does it. What usually happens is called an analysis but is in fact either a celebration or a wake, depending on the outcome. The winning team scatters and everyone goes on holiday, because why analyse something that, by definition, worked. The losing team dissolves even faster, because nobody wants to sit in a room and count their own mistakes out loud. I have told both sides, in vain, that every campaign of mine was better than the one before it precisely b...

  Svaka velika tehnološka promena menjala je i način na koji se kampanje vode i strukturu izbornog štaba. Televizija je stvorila medijske konsultante, a internet nam je u štab doveo digitalne direktore. Kada smo počeli da više koristimo baze podataka, ljudi koji rade sa biračkim spiskovima, CRM sistemima i digitalnim oglašavanjem preselili su se sa periferije štaba u njegov centar. Sećam se kakva je revolucija bila kada smo prvi u Srbiji uveli internet odeljenje u štab 2011. godine.  Tada su se u štabu pojavili ljudi sa opisom posla koji pet godina ranije nije postojao, ali je pres službe ostala netaknuta.   Ovaj tekst je nastao kao odgovor na analizu Milesa Mafteana „Meet the Campaign AI Engineer“ (Partisan Hub). Njegova teza mi je delovala tačno, ali nedovoljno testirana na terenu kakav je naš, pa sam je proširio podacima i iskustvom iz kampanja u poslednjih godinu dana.   Svi traže zmaja na pogrešnom mestu Trenutna rasprava o AI u kampanjama vrti se uglavnom oko n...

Republikanci su 2013. napravili najozbiljniju postizbornu analizu koju je jedna partija ikada uradila: sto strana, 36.000 popunjenih anketa i preko 50 fokus grupa. Zvala se „Growth & Opportunity Project". Deceniju kasnije, RNC je naručio novu jer prvu praktično niko nije primenio. To je cela priča o postizbornoj analizi u jednom pasusu. Problem nikada nije bio u tome što se analiza ne može uraditi. Problem je što se, i kad se uradi, retko ko posle nje ponaša drugačije. A kod nas se najčešće ni ne uradi nego se, u zavisnosti od ishoda, organizuje proslava ili parastos. Ovo je osamnaesti nastavak serijala o tome kako se kampanje vode. Ovoga puta o dokumentu koji svi obećaju na konferenciji za novinare, a skoro niko ne napiše. Ili još gore: napiše ga ali ga niko ne pročita.   Svakom štabu, posle svakih izbora, kažem isto: ‘Sad vam sledi detaljna analiza.’ Pobednici to najave na konferenciji na kojoj su objavili pobedu da pokažu ozbiljnost. Gubitnici to isto urade da pokažu kako s...

There's one sentence I've probably said a thousand times, and every time somebody in the campaign HQ looks at me like I've just said something very strange. Elections aren't won on election day, but that's the easiest day to lose them. Elections are won months earlier, in offices with no cameras and nobody around to put any of it on Instagram. There's an extra problem. Before you even reach that Sunday morning, you have to survive something almost nobody plans for seriously: the stretch between the moment campaign silence begins and the moment the polls open. The myth of election day I've written about this before, but it's worth repeating. In most people's heads, election day is the climax of the campaign. The crown. The big moment. Candidates touring polling stations, HQ in some form of more or less controlled chaos, phones ringing, someone shouting numbers. Like an American movie, I admit. And completely wrong. Election day isn't the climax. I...